Introduction

With the impetus behind the e-mobility sector growing, the focus is increasingly turning towards the infrastructure requirements needed to make the sector a success.

This report looks at the growth of this sector and how this will impact the infrastructure landscape for major stake-holders such as government, public bodies and utilities.

Features and benefits

* Analyze the infrastructure requirements for expanded e-mobility.
* Assess cost forecasts for the roll-out of e-mobility infrastructure.
* Highlight the increased power capacity needed for the expansion of e-mobility.
* Comprehend the level of penetration of Electric Vehicles be over the next 20 years.
* Realize the changing e-mobility landscape over the next 20 years.

Highlights

Utilities will not have to invest significantly in capacity expansion to accommodate EVs.
EV penetration rates are expected to remain quite low over the next two decades.
Public sector support will be needed for the roll-out of a comprehensive charging network.

Your key questions answered

* What are the major benefits and drawbacks to increased e-mobility?
* Can e-mobility work without government support?
* What are the key business models for companies operating in this sector?
* How are utilities preparing for increased e-mobility?
* How will increased e-mobility impact power generation and transmission?

Housely Carr 2
Disclaimer 3
Executive summary 11
Drivers for expanded e-mobility 11
Major electric vehicle manufacturers 11
Infrastructure needed to support e-mobility 12
Government policies and incentives for e-mobility 13
Costs and benefits of expanded e-mobility 14
Companies with aggressive e-mobility plans 15
Future outlook 15
Chapter 1 Drivers for expanded e-mobility 17
Summary 17
The shift toward a lower-carbon mobility sector 18
Climate change, air quality concerns 18
GHG action varies around the globe 20
E-mobility - a useful tool to fight GHG emissions 21
Transport dominates emissions 22
Dependence on foreign oil 23
Growing market in China 25
E-mobility as economic development driver 26
Strong support from electric utilities 27
E-mobility subsidies now; lower costs in the long term 28
Significant hurdles to e-mobility remain 29
Chapter 2 Major electric vehicle manufacturers 30
Summary 30
Introduction 31
Electric cars 31
Growth factors 33
Major electric car manufacturers 33
Commercial vehicles 36
Price and efficiency of EVs 39
EVs represent cost premium 40
Utility investment in EVs 41
Chapter 3 Infrastructure needed to support e-mobility 43
Summary 43
Introduction 44
Charging options 45
Cost of charging 46
Residential charging most cost-effective 47
Different approaches to developing infrastructure 49
Which manufacturers are best placed? 50
Charging technology 52
Utilities supporting charger roll-out 52
Current charging networks 53
Charging networks in the US 55
Are national electric grids ready for e-mobility? 56
How are utilities adapting? 60
California leads the way 62
How much new generation capacity will need to be built? 63
EVs won’t cause spike in power demand 66
EVs penetration projections 67
European power generation 68
Fleet vehicle electrification 69
Advantages of electric feet vehicles 70
Infrastructure for fleet vehicles 71
Total infrastructure investment 72
Hydrogen charging infrastructure 72
Fuel cell technology could be the future 73
Chapter 4 Government policies and incentives 75
Summary 75
Introduction 76
US 77
The American Clean Energy and Security Act also outlines investment 79
EVs to spur economic growth in Europe? 79
Asia pioneering EVs 82
Chinese EV market set for lift off 82
Indian potential for two-wheelers 83
Japan pushing past the Prius 83
Chapter 5 Costs and benefits of expanded e-mobility 84
Summary 84
Costs of expanded e-mobility 85
Greater up-front capital investment 85
Component costs are the biggest barrier 85
Reducing battery costs 86
The charging market develops 87
Component prices are falling 88
Scarcity of raw materials is a real concern 90
Support infrastructure expense 91
Electrical infrastructure costs 92
Utility involvement in EV charging 93
Uncertainties regarding longevity, reliability 94
The drawbacks of EVs 95
Benefits of expanded e-mobility 96
Expanded market for electricity (for utilities) 96
Optimized use of electric grids (for utilities) 97
Increased energy efficiency 98
Reduced energy costs 98
Compliance with air quality, climate change mandates 99
Reduced CO2 emissions from EVs 100
Tax incentives are favorable towards EVs 100
Registration/purchase taxes 100
Circulation/motor taxes 101
Fuel taxes 101
Congestion charging 101
Chapter 6 Companies with aggressive e-mobility plans 103
British Gas (UK) 104
ESB (Ireland) 104
EDF Energy (UK) 107
EDF Group (France) 108
EDF major player with fleet vehicles 109
EnBW (Germany) 110
RWE (Germany) 110
Vattenfall (Sweden, Germany) 112
Endesa (Spain) 114
State Grid Corporation (China) 115
Enel 115
Other stakeholders 116
Siemens 117
Coulomb Technologies 119
Better Place 119
Elektromotive 120
General Electric (GE) 122
Countries with aggressive e-mobility plans 124
European Union planning to standardize 126
Austria aggressively expanding e-mobility 127
Germany - e-mobility pioneer 127
France providing EV funding 128
The United Kingdom (UK) is building an EV network around London 129
Amsterdam to lead the way in the Netherlands 129
Chapter 7 Future outlook 131
Summary 131
Introduction 132
Sales of electricity/equipment 132
Smart grid 132
Current capacity in sufficient 133
Slow roll-out of EVs 133
Investment in transmission & distribution 135
Investment in charging infrastructure 136
Appendix 137
Companies mentioned in the report 137
Glossary/Abbreviations 139
Bibliography/References 140

Table of figures
Figure 1: Global energy related CO2 missions (bn metric tons) 19
Figure 2: Tank-to-wheel gasoline equivalent (GE) fuel consumption, (gCO2e/km), 2008 22
Figure 3: US oil imports December (bls ‘000), 2009 24
Figure 4: Electric vehicle sales forecast (units) 2010-2015 32
Figure 5: Tank-to-wheel energy use forecasts (MJ/km), 2035 40
Figure 6: Three levels of electric charging, 2011 44
Figure 7: GE WattStation, 2011 51
Figure 8: Paris EV charging network, 2008 55
Figure 9: Net global electricity generation/consumption 1990-2035 (Index 1990=1.00) 60
Figure 10: Evolution of the smart grid, 2011 62
Figure 11: Forecast incidence of the electric power request by the EV fleet to 2030, 2010 66
Figure 12: Fleet vehicles by type (%), 2009 70
Figure 13: Better Place’s Californian deployment of exchange stations, 2008 87
Figure 14: Forecasted cost of a typical EV battery ($), 2010-2030 89
Figure 15: Characteristics for diffusion of new technology, 2010 95
Figure 16: Requirements for expanded e-mobility infrastructure, 2011 97
Figure 17: ESB main charge-point deployment 2010 107
Figure 18: Responsibilities of the GV4 consortium 109
Figure 19: RWE future energy grid, 2010 112
Figure 20: Elektrobay software program, 2010 122
Figure 21: US EIA Energy Outlook EV unit forecasts by year (‘000) 135

Table of tables
Table 1: Global energy related CO2 missions (bn metric tons) 19
Table 2: Tank-to-wheel gasoline equivalent (GE) fuel consumption (gCO2e/km), 2008 21
Table 3: US oil imports December (bls ‘000), 2009 23
Table 4: Electric vehicle sales forecast (units) 2010-2015 32
Table 5: Major electric cars 2009-2011 34
Table 6: Major commercial electric vehicles releases, 2011 37
Table 7: Tank-to-wheel energy use forecasts (MJ/km), 2035 39
Table 8: Electric vehicle cost premium over conventional vehicle, 2010 41
Table 9: Estimated charging unit costs by level, 2010 45
Table 10: Public/Private EV infrastructure models, 2011 47
Table 11: Net global electricity generation/consumption 1990-2035 (Index 1990=1.00), Part 1 58
Table 12: Net global electricity generation/consumption 1990-2035 (Index 1990=1.00), Part 2 59
Table 13: Forecast incidence of the electric power request by the EV fleet to 2030, 2010 65
Table 14: Total EV sales forecast 2010-2035 (m) 67
Table 15: Major EV incentive programs by US state, 2011 78
Table 16: Major European incentive schemes for EVs, 2011 81
Table 17: Forecasted cost of a typical EV battery ($), 2010-2030 89
Table 18: US EIA Energy Outlook EV unit forecasts by year (‘000) 2015-2030 134