Although the global capacity remains small, the potential is enormous and solar power is expected to contribute significantly to electricity production by the middle of the century.

Solar thermal power generation depends on both a high solar intensity and a large amount of direct incident radiation not scattered by clouds. The best sites are generally in arid, desert regions with high annual sunshine levels. Most of these sites are found between 15º and 40º of latitude either side of the equator.

Scope of this research

• Realize up-to-date competitive intelligence through a comprehensive review of concentrating solar power technologies concepts in power generation. • Assess the emerging trends in csp technologies – parabolic troughs, solar towers, parabolic dishs, Fresnel reflectors and energy storage. • Identify which key trends will offer the greatest growth potential and learn which technology trends are likely to have greater market impact. • Compare how manufacturers are developing new concentrating solar power technologies. • Quantify costs of csp technologies, with comparisons against other forms of power generation technology, installation costs, cost of electricity.

Research and analysis highlights

While the recent growth in output is promising, solar thermal power plants still provide only a tiny fraction of global power consumption. Total global electricity production in 2008 was 20,169,000GWh. Of this renewable production (mostly from hydropower) accounted for 18.7% and the solar thermal contribution was 0.005%.

The average energy density reaching the earths surface is about 170W/m3 and the greatest, in the region of the Red Sea, is close to 300W/m3.

Across the region encompassing Africa, southern Europe and Asia, there is potential to generate 7,350TWh/y while the Pacific region could provide a further 2,300TWh/y.

Key reasons to purchase this research

• What are the drivers shaping and influencing concentrating solar power technology development in the electricity industry? • What does concentrating solar power generation cost? What will it cost in the future? • Which concentrating solar power technology types will be the winners and which the losers in terms of power generated, cost and viability? • Which concentrating solar power technology types are likely to find favor with manufacturers moving forward? • Which emerging technologies are gaining in popularity and why?

Dr Paul Breeze 2
Disclaimer 2

Executive summary 10

An introduction to concentrating solar thermal power generation 10
The solar resource 10
Solar thermal basics 11
Parabolic trough solar thermal power plants 11
Solar tower power plants 11
Parabolic dish solar power plants 12
Fresnel reflector solar thermal power plants 12
Other solar thermal technologies 13
The economics of concentrating solar power generation 13
The prospects for concentrating solar power 13

Chapter 1 An introduction to concentrating solar thermal power
generation 15
Summary 15
Introduction 15
The structure of the report 18

Chapter 2 The solar resource 19
Summary 19
Introduction 19
The solar potential 21
Resource data 24

Chapter 3 Solar thermal basics 25
Summary 25
Introduction 25
Energy collection 26
Energy storage 27
Energy conversion 28
Hybrid plants 29
Electricity transport 30
Principle types of solar thermal power plant 31

Chapter 4 Parabolic trough solar thermal power plants 34
Summary 34
Introduction 34
Parabolic trough technology 35
Power generation 38
Energy storage 39
Commercial parabolic trough plants 41
Hybrid solar thermal power plants 44
Technology advances 46
Parabolic trough plant costs 47
Parabolic trough plant development 47

Chapter 5 Solar tower power plants 49
Summary 49
Introduction 49
Solar tower technology 50
Power generation 51
Energy storage 53
Experimental solar tower projects 54
Commercial solar tower plants 57
Projects under development 58
Solar tower economics 61

Chapter 6 Parabolic dish solar power plants 63
Summary 63
Introduction 63
Parabolic dish technology 64
Power generation 66
Parabolic dish prototypes and development programmes 69
Commercial parabolic dish projects 72
Parabolic dish economics 73

Chapter 7 Fresnel reflector solar thermal power plants 76
Summary 76
Introduction 76
Fresnel reflector collection systems 77
Power generation 79
Demonstration and commercial Fresnel reflector power plants 80
Fresnel collector economics 84

Chapter 8 Other solar thermal technologies 85
Summary 85
Introduction 85
Solar chimneys 85
Solar ponds 87
Solar pond projects 88

Chapter 9 The economics of concentrating solar power generation 90
Summary 90
Introduction 90
Capital costs 91
The levelized cost of power from concentrating solar thermal power plants 95

Chapter 10 The prospects for concentrating solar power 99
Summary 99
Introduction 99
Transmission of CSP 100
Comparative capital cost of CSP 101
Levelized cost comparisons 105
The potential for growth in CSP 112
Regional growth potential 115
The outlook for CSP 119

Appendix 121
Bibliography/References 121

Table of figures
Figure 1: Global solar thermal electricity production (GWh), 2009 17
Figure 2: Estimated regional solar thermal potential, 2009 23
Figure 3: Cost breakdown for typical parabolic trough plant (%) 38
Figure 4: SEGS parabolic trough power plants, 2010 42
Figure 5: Hybrid parabolic trough power plants (MW), 2010 45
Figure 6: Solar Two efficiency figures (%) 56
Figure 7: Breakdown of costs for the original Solar Tres solar tower project (%) 62
Figure 8: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%) 74
Figure 9: Predicted capital cost for solar thermal power plants ($/kW), 2010 94
Figure 10: Predicted levelized cost of electricity from concentrating solar thermal power plants
($/MWh), 2010 97
Figure 11: EIA comparison of overnight capital costs for power generation technologies ($/kW), 2009
103
Figure 12: CEC overnight costs of power generation technologies; all plants enter service in 2009
($/kW) 104
Figure 13: EIA average levelized cost for plants entering service in the US in 2016 ($/MWh) 107
Figure 14: Average levelized cost for plants entering service in California in 2009 ($/MWh) 108
Figure 15: Global capacities for conventional and renewable generation technologies (GW), 2009 110
Figure 16: Average electricity cost for conventional and renewable generation technologies, 2009 111
Figure 17: Predicted generation from solar thermal power plants as a proportion of total electricity
consumption to 2050 113
Figure 18: Predicted cumulative CSP capacity under different growth scenarios to 2050 (MW) 114
Figure 19: Solar thermal potential in the western states of the US, 2009 117
Figure 20: Potential annual solar thermal output, China and India (TWh), 2010 118

Table of tables
Table 1: Global solar thermal electricity production (GWh), 2009 16
Table 2: Solar energy, 2010 20
Table 3: Estimated regional solar thermal potential, 2009 22
Table 4: Solar thermal power plant characteristics 32
Table 5: Typical parabolic trough plant parameters for a 50MW plant, 2009 36
Table 6: Cost breakdown for typical parabolic trough plant (%) 37
Table 7: SEGS parabolic trough power plants 41
Table 8: New parabolic trough power plants (MW), 2010 43
Table 9: Hybrid parabolic trough power plants (MW), 2010 44
Table 10: Typical solar tower plant parameters, 2009 50
Table 11: Experimental solar tower projects 54
Table 12: Solar Two efficiency figures (%) 55
Table 13: PS10 and PS20 plant specifications, 2009 57
Table 14: Gemasolar solar tower specification, 2010 59
Table 15: Key features of proposed Ivanpah solar tower development, 2010 60
Table 16: Breakdown of costs for the original Solar Tres solar tower project (%) 61
Table 17: Key parameters for a typical parabolic dish solar unit, 2010 65
Table 18: Solar dish experimental programmes and prototypes (kW), 2010 70
Table 19: The Solarplant 1 technical specification, 2010 71
Table 20: The Australian National University SG4 Big Dish specification, 2010 73
Table 21: Breakdown of costs for a hypothetical 50MW solar dish power plant (%) 74
Table 22: Typical Fresnel reflector power plant parameters, 2010 78
Table 23: Linear Fresnel reflector power plants, 2010 81
Table 24: Kimberlina power plant characteristics, 2010 82
Table 25: Characteristics of the Fresdemo pilot project, 2010 83
Table 26: Capital costs for operating solar thermal power plants and for plants under construction,
2010 92
Table 27: Predicted capital cost for solar thermal power plants ($/kW), 2010 93
Table 28: Predicted levelized cost of electricity from concentrating solar thermal power plants
($/MWh), 2010 96
Table 29: EIA comparison of overnight capital costs for power generation technologies, 2009 102
Table 30: CEC overnight costs of power generation technologies; all plants enter service in 2009
($/kW) 104
Table 31: EIA average levelized cost for plants entering service in the US in 2016 ($/MWh) 106
Table 32: Average levelized cost for plants entering service in California in 2009 ($/MWh) 108
Table 33: Average electricity cost and global capacities for conventional and renewable generation
technologies, 2009 110
Table 34: Predicted generation from solar thermal power plants as a proportion of total electricity
consumption to 2050 112
Table 35: Predicted cumulative CSP capacity under different growth scenarios to 2050 (MW) 114
Table 36: Potential solar thermal generation in Europe and North Africa to 2030 116
Table 37: Solar thermal potential in the western states of the US, 2009 117
Table 38: Potential annual solar thermal output, China and India (TWh), 2010 118