United States Market Review and Forecast

This report, provides the research findings of our study of the United States consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as “consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting (SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.
 
 General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we provide a market review for the year 2010 plus our forecast and analysis (2011-2015) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.
 
 For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category. LEDs used in signage, displays and signal lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study. Lighting used in theaters, photography, newsgathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor are considered general Lighting.
 
 LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based solid-state lighting (SSL) delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.
 LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study Below, are five levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 3”
 
 Level 1 - The chip or die
 Level 2 - The Packaged LED
 Level 3 – Lamp (Consumer-Level Bulb, Globe, Linear Tube, Panel)
 Level 4 - Luminaire (light fixture/lamp holder/fitting)
 
 This report provides the 2010 market data review and 2011-2015 forecast by the following functions:
 
 • Consumption Value (US$)
 • Quantity (number/units)
 • Average Selling Prices ($, each)
 
 The value is determined by multiplying the number of units (lamps) by the average selling price (ASP) in US Dollars. The ASPs are not retail prices; the prices are based on the price of the LED lamp at the initial factory level (prior to FOB – Free On Board). The value is then based on the end-use application in the United States.
 
 This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past nine years, but updated through early-February 2011. During the market research process, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED and lighting industry, plus – R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of LED and lighting illumination products.
 
 Forecast Lighting Demand Growth Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window of opportunity.
 
 Market Forecast Product Categories This market forecast of United States consumption is presented for six major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp (see Chapter 3 for explanation of size categories for PAR-types, General Service-types, Decorative-types, and MR compatible lamp-types).
 
 Note: lower-level products, which are indented in the list shown in Table 1, are summed-up to the higher-level product category stated above it.
 
 Table 1
 ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base Hierachy Structure
 U.S.A. LED Lamp Product Category List
 
 Parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR)
 PAR16
 PAR20
 PAR30
 PAR38
 PAR56
 PAR64
 PAR-Types: Other (Miscellaneous) Sizes
 
 General Service (A-Type)
 A15
 A19 / Other A-Type
 
 Decorative Types: Globe, Other (Candle, Fancy Round, Other)
 Globe: G25
 Globe: G80
 Other Decorative
 
 Multifaceted reflector (MR) Compatible
 MR16
 MR11 / Other MR
 
 Linear / Tube
 < 1200mm
 > 1200mm
 
 Street / Parking-lot / Campus / Similar (Parks, Walkways)
 
 
 Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition (both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales distribution improvements, and other factors.
 
 Market Opportunity Analysis – Market Dynamics The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the following points:
 
 • Standards (including general regulations & standards, environmental issues, etc.)
 • Policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting
 • Industry trends in LED lighting fixtures
 • Distribution Channel (DIY stores, other stores, Web-based, other)
 • LED Lighting industry competitive environment
 Total cost of ownership (TCO) is a Major Market Driver The use of LED-based lamps in SSL General lighting is driven by promised savings in maintenance/ labor, as well as “Green-Tech” (ecology-oriented) issues. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a key marketing dynamic relative to LED Lamps, which typically have a premium price point versus other lighting solutions. Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for LED-based lamps vehicle include:
 • Depreciation Costs (LEDs last longer)
 • Energy Costs (LEDs use less energy)
 • Repairs (Especially true as a comparison vs. Ballasts in fluorescent tubes)
 • Funding programs and other government-based financial incentives
 • Maintenance Costs (Lower labor costs/less lamp replacements)
 
 Opportunity Costs are also in the TCO mix; since ElectroniCast takes into account that using LED (energy-efficient lighting and other carbon footprint/pollution issues) depicts the organization, which installs them, as a good corporate citizen.
 
 In 2010, the United States consumption value of specified LED lamps, which are used in SSL General Lighting, was $485 million; ElectroniCast forecasts the consumption value will reach $1.64 billion installed in the year 2015 representing an average annual growth rate of 27.6 percent (2010-2015). 
 
 LED Lamps Used in Solid-State Light (SSL) General Lighting
 U.S.A. Market Forecast
 Source: ElectroniCast Consultants)

United States of America
 Solid-State Lighting General Lighting LED Lamp Consumption

– Tables of Contents –
 
 1. Executive Summary 1-1
 1.1 Overview 1-1
 1.2 LED Chips Used in General Solid-State Lighting (SSL) 1-26
 1.3 LED Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting 1-30
 2. LEDs – Technology Overview 2-1
 3. LED Lamp General lighting Consumption in the United States 3-1
 3.1 Overview 3-1
 3.2 Parabolic Aluminized Reflector (PAR) LED Lamps 3-65
 3.3 General Service (A-Type): LED lamps 3-76
 3.4 Decorative LED Lamps (Globe, Fancy Round, Candle, other-Types) 3-82
 3.5 Multifaceted reflector (MR) Compatible LED Lamps 3-88
 3.6 Linear/Tube LED Lamps 3-95
 3.7 LED Lamps: Street-lighting/Parking-Lots/Campus/Parks/Similar 3-103
 4. Lighting Standards and Protocols 4-1
 5. Company Profiles of LED and Related Companies – (Over 270 Companies) 5-1
 6. Market Research Methodology 6-1
 7. Definitions 7-1
 8. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base – Introduction/Explanation of Excel Worksheets 8-1
 8.1 Overview 8-1
 8.2 Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets 8-3
 
 – List of Tables –
 
 1.1.1 ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: LED Lamp Product Category List 1-3
 1.1.2 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million) 1-9
 1.1.3 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (Quantity/Units) 1-10
 1.1.4 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (ASP, $ Each) 1-11
 1.1.5 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million) 1-12
 2.1 LED Color Variety – Selected Examples 2-9
 2.1 LED Color Chart 2-11
 3.1.1 ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: LED Lamp Product Category List 3-20
 3.1.2 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million) 3-22
 3.1.3 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (Quantity/Units) 3-22
 3.1.4 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (ASP, $ Each) 3-23
 3.1.5 Calculation of the Cost of Manufacturing Facility Downtime 3-52
 3.1.6 Comparison of Lighting Technologies 3-53
 3.2.1 PAR Lamp Designation and Nominal Diameter 3-67
 3.2.2 PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million) 3-68
 3.2.3 PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product (Quantity/Units) 3-68
 3.2.4 PAR LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product (ASP, $ Each) 3-69
 3.2.5 PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (all functions) 3-70
 3.2.6 PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User Category ($ Million) 3-71
 3.3.1 General Service LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (all functions) 3-80
 3.3.2 General Service LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million) 3-81
 3.4.1 Decorative LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (all functions) 3-86
 3.4.2 Decorative LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million) 3-87
 3.5.1 MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Australia Forecast, by Product (all functions) 3-93
 3.5.2 MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million) 3-94
 3.6.1 Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, by Product (all functions) 3-100
 3.6.2 Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million) 3-102
 3.6.2 Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting American Region (2010-2020) ($ Million) 3-102
 3.7.1 LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million) 3-108
 8.1.1 ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Product Category Hierarchy List 8-2
 8.2.1 ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Application Category Hierarchy List 8-3
 
 – List of Figures –
 
 1.1.1 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Value Basis, $ Million) 1-7
 1.1.2 LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity Basis, Million/Units) 1-8
 1.1.3 Single-die LED: 1000 lm at 100 lm/W at 3A 1-14
 1.1.4 LED Packaged Chip/Bulb 1-15
 1.1.5 LED Packaged Chip/Bulb 1-15
 1.1.6 LED Packaged Chip/Bulb Surface Mount Variations 1-16
 1.1.7 LED Packaged Chip/Bulb 1-17
 1.1.8 High Brightness LED Packaged Chip/Bulb 1-18
 1.2.1 Diagram of a typical LED chip 1-26
 1.2.2 Diagram of a typical LED chip 1-27
 1.2.3 LED Chip Cross-Sectional Structure 1-28
 1.2.4 ESD Protection Diodes 1-29
 1.3.1 A19 Bulbs (Consumer-Level Bulb/LED Lamp) 1-31
 1.3.2 Obstruction Bulbs (Lamps) - Flashing - 138 red or amber LEDs 1-32
 1.3.3 LED Lamp – Down-light Retrofit Module 1-33
 1.3.4 Miscellaneous LED Lamps 1-34
 1.3.5 LED Light Bulb (Cool White) 1-35
 1.3.6 Complete Fixture and Replacement Bulb - Streetlight (Lamp) 1-36
 1.3.7 Samples of Lighting Fixture Types 1-38
 2.1 LED Chromatic Chart 2-10
 2.2 Evolution of Research Emphasis During Technology Life Cycle 2-12
 2.3 LED Chip: Metal Layer (Thin Film Technology) 2-13
 2.4 Vertical LED Chip 2-14
 2.5 AC LED Technology on a Wafer 2-20
 2.6 Ultra High Bright LED Chip 2-21
 2.7 Ultra-Thin LED 2-24
 2.8 Solid-State Lighting LED 2-25
 2.9 LED Module with High Light Quality 2-26
 2.10 Transparent and flexible inorganic, organic hybrid n-type: Thin Film Transistors (TFTs) 2-30
 2.11 Lumiramic Phosphor Technology: Thin Film Flip Chip (TFFC) technology 2-31
 2.12 Wire-to-Board LED Connector 2-34
 2.13 Next-Generation Light Emitting Diode Module 2-38
 2.14 4-Leaded RGB LED 2-40
 2.15 Vertically Conducting Advanced LED Structure 2-44
 2.16 AlGaInP LED Efficacy 2-46
 3.1.1 Campus at Night with LED Lighting 3-6
 3.1.2 LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting 3-25
 3.1.3 LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting 3-26
 3.1.4 LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting 3-27
 3.1.5 LED-Based Airfield Runway Edge Lighting (Solar Powered) 3-32
 3.1.6 LED-Based Solar Powered Airfield Light 3-33
 3.1.7 LED Technology for Stage Lighting 3-36
 3.1.8 Entertainment & Architectural Lighting: Multiple Color LED in a Surface-Mount (SMT) Package 3-37
 3.1.9 Color Mixer Reflector for LED Technology Lighting 3-38
 3.1.10 LED Technology for Under-Cabinet Lighting 3-40
 3.1.11 Production-Lighting: Small Rectangle LED Light Fixture 3-46
 3.1.12 Production Lighting: 8.3-inch LED Circular Spot 3-47
 3.1.13 Production Lighting: 14x14-inch LED Light Panel 3-48
 3.1.14 Production Lighting: LED Circular Fresnel Spot Fixtures 3-49
 3.1.15 48-inch Fluorescent Replacement Style LED Light Fixture 3-54
 3.1.16 DIP T8 – Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps 3-57
 3.1.17 SMD T8 and T5 – LED Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps 3-58
 3.1.18 DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps 3-61
 3.1.19 DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps 3-62
 3.1.20 SMD-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps 3-63
 3.1.21 SMD-Type High-Output LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps 3-64
 
 – List of Figures – Continued
 
 3.2.1 LED-Based PAR 30 Lamp 3-66
 3.3.1 General Service LED-based Lamp (A-Style Bulb Category) 3-76
 3.3.2 General Service/Globe LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million) 3-77
 3.3.3 General Service/Globe LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity) 3-78
 3.3.4 General Service/Globe LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ ea) 3-79
 3.4.1 Decorative (Candle-Style) LED-based Lamp (C-Style Bulb Category) 3-82
 3.4.2 Decorative LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million) 3-83
 3.4.3 Decorative LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity) 3-84
 3.4.4 Decorative Service/Globe LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ ea) 3-85
 3.5.1 1W 12V GU5.3 / 2 Pin MR16 LED Replacement Lamp 3-89
 3.5.2 MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million) 3-90
 3.5.3 MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity) 3-91
 3.5.4 MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each) 3-92
 3.6.1 Linear/Tube LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million) 3-97
 3.6.2 Linear/Tube LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity) 3-98
 3.6.3 Linear/Tube LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each) 3-99
 3.7.1 LED Street Lamps Undergoing Test Operations 3-103
 3.7.2 LED-Based Street Lights 3-104
 3.7.3 LED Street Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million) 3-105
 3.7.4 LED Street Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity) 3-106
 3.7.5 LED Street Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each) 3-107
 5.1 PCB Assembly 5-23
 5.2 LED Backlit Display 5-25
 5.3 Rugged Touch Screen with NVIS Capability 5-40
 5.4 LED Down light with 102 Lumens per Watt Fixture 5-54
 5.5 LED Lighting Military Solutions 5-57
 5.6 LED Lighting in Railway Station 5-59
 5.7 LED Technology Safelight Design 5-70
 5.8 LED Lighting (water flow stream) 5-74
 5.9 NVIS/LED Control Panel 5-78
 5.10 Integrated Weapons Delivery System 5-79
 5.11 Cockpit Modular Display/Panel 5-88
 5.12 Cockpit Large Area Display 5-89
 5.13 Traffic Lamp LED 5-96
 5.14 High Power LED Lamp 5-96
 5.15 Surface Mount Type LED 5-97
 5.16 Surface Mount Type LED 5-100
 5.17 Exterior Aircraft LED Lighting 5-104
 5.18 High-brightness LED Module 5-116
 5.19 Surface-Mount Multi-layer Ceramic Packages 5-121
 5.20 LED Linear Optical Array 5-128
 5.21 Solid-State NVIS Lamps 5-140
 5.22 LED Escalator Light 5-144
 5.23 Nanostructures Designed for Different Color Emission 5-148
 5.24 LED Array Lighting – Lamp 5-154
 5.25 Light-Measurement Device 5-163
 5.26 SSL LED: Replacement for Halogen Lamp in Spotlights 5-169
 5.27 LED-Based Digital Billboard (Signage/Display) 5-184
 5.28 Diagram of Backlight LED Drivers 5-187
 5.29 Diagram of Multifunction Backlight LED Drivers 5-188
 5.30 Diagram of White Backlight LED Drivers 5-189
 5.31 Diagram White Backlight LED Drivers 5-190
 5.32 Rotary Wing Aircraft Cockpit Display 5-192
 5.33 Ultra-Thin LED 5-204
 5.34 Quality Management System in LED Manufacturing 5-207
 5.35 Military and Harsh-Environment LEDs 5-227
 5.36 LED-Based Marine Biology Lighting Device 5-231
 6.1 Market Research & Forecasting Methodology 6-3