Summary

This new report is a roadmap study of the electronics industry and connectors, with 90 tables and many photos and illustrations. Taking off from work done on the 2009 iNEMI Roadmap, this study analyzes major elements of the electronics industry that parallel, intersect and influence connectors, and looks at the connector industry’s markets, technology and forecasts major product roadmaps from 2009-2019. Compiled during, and influenced by the 2008-2009 recession, the report analyzes how the industry will move forward from the current point in time, and forecasts markets from 2007-2013 and gives a long-range outlook to 2019, including the impact of a slowing IC technology – a critical driver for connector technology and demand.
Deep recessionary forces facing electronics were caused by forces external to the industry – not by boom and bust cycles in the industry such as happened in 2000. The 2008-2009 recession was caused by a crisis in the financial and housing sectors, followed by a credit crunch and stock market plunge that shut off demand for products and services.
This crisis had been building in the economy for some time, brought on by cheap credit, speculation in the housing market, and a lack of conservative financial management. As of this writing, the 2009 downturn is still lingering, although it may have hit bottom in 1Q09. There are some signs of improvement, the ‘connector confidence index’ is up, but positive changes are slow and painful for some. Employment tends to lag recovery, and this recession is no different. We do not know for certain when and how fast positive growth will resume. There remains a ‘big hole’ to dig out of, which may result in a 3 year period of recovery.
Many forecasters think the recession has or will soon end, and will be followed by a slow recovery in 4Q09, picking up 2010. There is some improvement as of Sept 2009, but 1H09 was down 35 percent from 2008. There remains uncertainty due to the unprecedented situation we have faced:
Unknown depth and breadth of the current credit crunch.
Government response, which is exploding debt and will require tax increases.
Continuing impact of huge hit on personal savings and investment.
Continuing impact on discretionary purchases, i.e. electronic equipment, consumer electronics.
The now greater exposure of the industry to consumer spending (> 60 percent of total semiconductor dollars).
Specific industry issues: automotive, consumer, computers/peripherals, and medical.
Automotive, a most important connector market, is undergoing a massive restructuring.
Government stimulus is mostly non-electronic: Infrastructure, social Programs. 

The connector industry forecast is conservative – based on depth of current recession and issues in automotive market. Growth rate 2008-13 is just 1.5 percent, indicating a slow recovery similar to what occurred after 911. But growth rate 2009-13 is 9.5 percent/year. Possibility exists for a more robust recovery, with pent up demand. This seems unlikely due to continued high levels of unemployment, slow recovery in housing market, and other issues.
Connector Market by Equipment Segment - 2007-2013

This report will examine longer-term growth and opportunity in the electronics industry and connectors, plus potential barriers to success.

Chapter 1 - Technology Roadmaps

The Roadmap Process
Areas of Focus
Industry Input
Technology Roadmap for IC Substrates
Is it Worth The Time?
Possible Outline for a Connector Company Roadmap
Memory Socket Roadmap
Roadmap Manuscript from Sandia Laboratories
Phase II. Development of the Technology Roadmap
Phase III. Follow-up Activity
Abstract
Executive Summary
Fundamentals of Technology Road mapping Introduction
Uses and Benefits of Technology Road mapping
What is Technology Road mapping?
What is a Technology Roadmap?
Types of Technology Roadmaps
Planning and Business Development Context for Technology Road mapping
Knowledge and Skills Required for Technology Road mapping
Technology Road mapping Process
The three phases in the technology road mapping process
Phase I: Preliminary Activity
Phase II: Development of the Technology Roadmap
Phase III: Follow-up Activity
Technology Roadmap Example
Conclusions
Future Work
References
Road mapping Glossary

Chapter 2 - Electronics Industry Roadmaps

Introduction
Final Assembly Roadmap Exposure
Factors that will Change, Improve, or Complicate Final Assembly
Rationale for Final Assembly Outsourcing Projections
Final Assembly Future - Connector Industry
Positive
Mixed
Potentially Negative
Board Assembly
Connectors
Smallest Connector Size
Integrated Passive Board Assembly
Buried Resistors and Capacitors
EMS Industry And Board Assembly
Top 100 EMS/ODM with Primary Manufacturing Location
Top 100 CM/EMS - World & US Summary
Top 100 Summary
Board Assembly Future - Connector Industry
Positive
Mixed
Potentially Negative
Printed Wiring Boards (PWB)
PWB Types and Applications
Past
Present
Flexible Circuitry
Current State of PWB Technology
Roadmap of PWB Technology – Conventional + Build Up Multilayer
World Estimate – PWB Marketplace by Region 2006-2019
Roadmap Questions for Future PWB Applications and Technology
Strategic Issues
Top 50 PCB Manufacturers & Location
Electronic Packaging
Packaging Markets
Focus on IC Packaging
Package Types and Growth
SiP vs. SoC
Package Density and Miniaturization
Single Chip IO Package Roadmap 2009-2015|
Top 25 Semiconductor Companies + Estimated Connector Usage
Electronic Packaging vs. High Speed Signal Integrity|
High Speed interconnect 2004-2019
DesignCon News
Semiconductors
1999-2009:
2009-2019:
Top 25 IC Companies as of 2008
Top 25 Rankings by iSuppi
Semiconductor Roadmap Impact on Connectors
For ICs:
IC-to-Connectors:

Chapter 3 - More Electronics Industry Roadmaps

Environmental Electronics
Mass Data Storage
HDDs Types and Capacities
Existing and new players in HDD, Memory Card Storage/SSD market:
SSDs are Coming: Notebooks, Servers, Storage Equip, Telecom, Medical, Gaming
Toshiba Comment
SSD OEMs
World Hard Disk Market 2003-2013
Estimated Worldwide SSD Markets 2003-2013
Worldwide Memory Card Market
Optoelectronics
Telecom Applications
Datacom Applications
LANs
Plastic Optical Fiber POF
Electronic Packaging & Interconnect
FO Backplane Systems
Fiber-to-the-Home
Fiber-from-the-Chip

Chapter 4 - Connector Technology

Introduction
Future of Connector Technology
2009 Recession Impact on Market:
Recessionary Impact on Connector Research
Recessionary Impact on Industry Research, Development and New Products
Impact by Market
Connector Product Design
Connector Technology
Connector Product Categories
Levels of Interconnect
Market Forces Impacting Technology
Technology Roadmap and Trends
Core Technology
Technology Roadblocks
Technology Requirements & Challenges by Connector Type
Roadblock Summary
Key Areas for Development
Comment for Connector Customers
Some Recent Connector Development Examples

Chapter 5 - Connector Roadmap

Will the Electronics Industry and the Connector Industry Approach Maturity during the Next 10 Years?
Industry Maturity Index 2009-2019
Electronics Industry Continuum
Connector Technology Trends
View of the Future
World Connector Markets 2007-2013
Connectors’ Major Market Segments
Connector Share by Market Segment, 2009
Some Major Customers
Nominal/Optimist Connector Industry Forecast - Worldwide Sales 2007-2019
Dynamics Impacting Future Industry Direction
Connector Technology Future
Changing Customers, Requirements
Barriers to be Overcome by the Connector Industry
Key Points about Changing Connector Requirements
Changing Outlook from 2009-2019
Connector Market Review
Global Sales 1981-2008
Regional Sales
Connector Description
Top 20 Connector Manufacturers 2008-2014E
Trends in Regional Connector Markets – Manufacturing and Consumption:
Taiwan:
Taiwan-China
European Connector Differentiation vs. Global Market
Manufacturing Movement in Europe East + Asia
European Opportunities within 2009-19 Timeframe
Globalization Impact
Europe Engineering:
Global Connector Design
Global Connector Manufacturing
Keys for Connector Makers in Adjusting to this Trend
Key Manufacturing Parameters
Environmental Regulations
Ongoing Questions:
Issues as of 2009
INEMI Position of Flame Retardants
Key Connector Industry Needs 2009-2014
Connector Type Summary
Critical Issues Impacting the Industry
Other Points
Major Development Work anticipated
Connectors Core Competencies
Technology Needs - Manufacturing
Base Metals
Contact Fabrication
Parts Manufacturing
Connector Assembly
Manufacturing Trends
Manufacturing Automation
Attributes of Levels of Automation
Manufacturing Summary
Connector Challenges Going Forward
Key Areas For Development
Gaps in Existing Connector Technology
Areas where Gaps to OEM/EMS Requirements Will Occur
Computer & Peripheral, Office Equipment Roadmap
Portable Systems Roadmap: Cell Phone, Notebook, Consumer

Chapter 6 - Product Roadmaps

IC Sockets
Production IC Sockets
(LGA-PGA-other - for Processors, ASICs)
Dual Inline Memory Sockets
(JEDEC DIMM Sockets)
Flash Memory Connectors
Memory Card Receptacles
(Flash Memory Sockets)
PCB Connectors
PCB Connectors
(PCI Express example)
Generic PCB Connectors
PCB Connectors (100s of PNs) are the largest Connector Category
Universal Serial Bus Connectors
Mini USB & Firewire SLR Camera Ports
USB/IEEE1394 Connectors Roadmap Data
FPC/FEC Cable to Board Connectors
Wire-to-Board
(Miniature FPC/FEC Connectors)
Board Stacking
Miniature Board Stacking Connectors
Backplane Connectors
2mm Backplane Connectors
(Compact PCI Example)
High Performance Backplane Connectors
(Various OEM/Licensed Designs)
Fiber Optic Connectors
Bottom Line:
Background
FO Deployment
Formidable Roadblocks
Available Elements of a Photonic System
Future Breakthroughs
Fiber Optic Connector Roadmap
2009-2019
Communication Cables
Connector Linkage
Some Types of Cable
TIA Part 568 Cat 5-7 Cable
Industrial Ethernet Cable
Plenum/Riser Cable – Commercial Buildings
Battery Application, Connector Projections 2000-2019
Test & Burn-In Sockets
Critical Issues:
Test Socket Technology Trends
Key Design Issues
Key Points
Burn-In Sockets
Test:
Burn-In
Test & Burn-In Sockets
Some Industry Recommendations

Chapter 7 - Forecast Scenarios

Recessions, Recovery and Growth
2001-2003
2008-2010
Connector Company Rankings - Top 20 Connector Manufacturers 1998-2008
Top 50 by Region - 1998
51-100 and Total Top 100 Sales - 1998
Top 50 by Region - 2008
51-100 and Total Top 100 Sales - 2008
Top 10 Summary by Region 1998
Top 10 Summary by Region 2008
Top 10 by Region 1998 2008
Connector Industry Forecast
Worldwide Sales by Region 2007-2013
Connector Industry Forecast
Worldwide Sales by Equipment Sector 2007-2013
2007-2019 Market Projections
Market Bar Chart 2009-2014-2019
Manufacturing Value
Table 7.19 Connector Industry by Region 2007-13
Connector Manufacturing Value by Region 2007-2013