As in previous editions of this publication, the goal of Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012 is to identify and discuss the flavor and ingredient trends expected to have a major impact in the near future on food consumed both at home and away. The economic picture for 2012 appears muted at best. Feeling the squeeze, both the employed and out-of-work will continue to practice the frugal behaviors adopted during the Great Recession of 2008, while also attempting to incorporate healthy food choices into their daily routines. Seeking to overcome the boredom of extended frugality, consumers will especially value creative attempts by manufacturers, retailers, and foodservice operators to affordably introduce variety, comfort and indulgence to their taste experiences.

Key Drivers

The unemployment rate, expected to remain high or approach double digits if the country slips back into recession, will be the biggest factor affecting the economy and consumer confidence in 2012. Wage stagnation, high gas prices, higher food prices, continued decline in home values and European financial woes contributed to eroding consumer confidence that encouraged honing frugal purchasing habits in the second half of 2011.

For the foodservice sector in particular, consumer confidence will be crucial in 2012. As Baby Boomers worry more about retirement and cut back on eating out, some foodservice operators will increasingly focus on the preferences of Millennials and Next Generations for driving trends.

When it comes to food at home and away, consumer frugality continues to manifest itself in ever more ways that include shopping from a list, buying less, trading down, using coupons, delaying and combining trips to cut back on gasoline usage, forgoing impulse buying and even small discretionary purchases, and doing more shopping at bulk food stores and dollar stores. In addition, 2012 is likely to see continued paycheck-cycle shopping, whereby consumers buy large quantities right after getting paid, and then switch to buying smaller package sizes as money starts to run out.

The protracted economic doldrums of the last few years have resulted in more ways for consumers to trade down. In addition to switching to private label brands, smaller, cheaper packages of favorite branded items are increasingly available. And consumers will continue to seek out deals and new value offerings.

As consumer budgets shrink further, products that were once considered essentials are now luxury items. Spending on kids, typically resilient during recessions, has been showing signs of declining. The data suggest that consumers are both reducing purchases and trading down to less expensive private label brands.

The coming year will see more food manufacturers and retailers targeting the growing numbers of high and low end consumers instead of focusing on the shrinking middle class. Much of this is the result of shrinking budgets of the former middle class, now planting them squarely in the group of low income consumers.

Chapter 1 Executive Summary

Scope

Key Drivers

Forever Frugal and Trading Down

The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class

Going to Extremes

A Look Back and Ahead

Ethnic and Regional Enticements

Produce Predominates

Trend Watching 2012

Flavor and Ingredient Crossovers

Making Healthy Easier

Beverages Breaking Through

Protein: Lean and Luscious

Sexy Sandwiches

Sweet Treats

Chapter 2 Ethnic and Regional Enticements

Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion

Peruvian Progressing

Southern Revival

Celebrating U.S. Regional Ingredients

Mexican Misconceptions: Appealing to the Hispanic Population

What Foodies Want: U.S. Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal

Table 2-1 Top U.S. Destination Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal

Providence - Portuguese Roots Plus Peculiar Pleasantries

Santa Fe Specialties

Chapter 3 Produce Predominates

Heirlooms: Starting with Old, Very Old, Seeds

Ratcheting Up “Real” with Fresh Fruits and Vegetables

Produce Promises at Progressive Fast Casuals

Juicing It Up

Produce Pronto: On-the-Go and At Home

Fruit & Veggies On-the-Go

Salad and Cook-Ready Veggies: Available On Demand

Popular Produce

Greens

Turnips

Specialty Mushrooms

Vegetables: The New Luncheon Meat?

Potato Appeal

Vegetables From the Sea

Edible Plants from the Wild

Bountiful Fruits

Sensational Superfruits

Trendy Tropicals

Tangy Citrus

Apples Abound

Food Stamps = Plethora of Produce

Farmers’ Markets: Too Many, Too Few, Time for Something New?

Table 3-1 Number of Operating Farmers' Markets in the United States

CSAs and Farmers’ Markets - Collaborators or Competitors?

Supermarket Produce - Getting More Local

Supermarket Produce Aisle - THE Place to Be

Veggies, Veggies Everywhere - Except the Diet?

Chapter 4 Trend Watching 2012

New Crop of Young Farmers

Historic Gastronomy: Recreating Recipes of Olde

Linner & Brinner: Millennials Redefine Eating

New Market Formats for DIY Food Crafts

Gourmet Gadgets - Goofy or Godsends?

Perfecting Mini Pies

Whoopie Pies Go Wild

Serious Stuff for Sous Vide Fans

Panini Press On

Yonanas: Going Bananas

New Twists in Food Tourism

Agritourists Seek Farmer Chefs

Tour de Compost

Home is Where the Chicken Roosts

Future Food: Dinner for …… 7 Billion!

Breadfruit Believers Battle Bland

Betting on Bug Bites

Vampires, Line Up

Crossovers: Ingredients in Unexpected Places

Duck Fat: Good for You, or Just Good?

Desserts Get Peppered Up

Pretzel Power

Waffles - Unwavering

Luxurious Layering

Combos and Value Meals in New Places

Chapter 5 Making Healthy Easier

Plate2 vs. Pyramid

Figure 5-1 USDA Choose MyPlate Icon for Communicating 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans

Harvard: Healthy Eating Plate

Figure 5-2 Harvard School of Public Health Proposed Healthy Eating Plate Icon

Managing Weight - Still a Hefty Task

Making Dining Out More Nutritious

Ronald’s Reckoning: Reinvention Triumphs Over Retirement

The Power of Peer Pressure: Kids LiveWell Program

Dietitians - The New Menu Celebrities?

Consumers’ Nutrition Concerns

Gluten-Free Going Gangbusters

Vexing Vitamins

Defining Beauty

Explosive Energy

Chapter 6 Mostly, Friendlier Fats

Preindustrial Fats - Pure Pleasure

Artisanal Butter

Healthier and Heavenly

Specialty Seed, Nut and Vegetable Oils

Pumpkin Seed Oil

Avocado Oil

Nut Oils

Chapter 7 Beverages Breaking Through

Smoothies: More Shaking & Stirring

Table 7-1 Recently Launched U.S. Retail Smoothie Products

Jazzing Up the Juice

Juice Bar Makeover - Revolution or Evolution?

Retail Market - Less Juicy?

Drink Your Vegetables!

DIY Beverages Get Personal

Customized Concentrates

Portable Powder Sticks Still Popular

Getting Personal, At Home

Chapter 8 Protein: Lean and Luscious

Seafood

Retailers Increasingly Committed to Sustainability

Boat-to-Table: Hi Tech Enabled

Canned Tuna - Under Attack

The Dietary Guidelines & Seafood Consumption

Savoring Small, Oily Fish

Poultry Preoccupation

Chasing Chickens

Tantalizing Turkey

Pies - Not Just for Dessert

Bye, Bye Boxed Beef!

Sizzling Sausages

Ethnic Dogs

“If It Ain’t In a Casing, it isn’t worth tasting.”

Sausage Stats

Corn Dogs

Boastful Burgers - Can You Top This?

Mighty Meat Combos

Seafood Combos

Utmost Umami

Chapter 9 Sexy Sandwiches

Burgers Beware!

Haute Sandwiches

Glamorous Grilled Cheese - Getting Cheesier

Scanwich: Sandwiches as Art

Super Convenient Sandwiches

Popovers - The Next Sandwich Ingredient?

Chapter 10 Sweet Treats

Classics Redefined

Luscious Layer Cakes Return

Puddings with Pizazz

Crisps, Cobblers and Other Baked Fruit Desserts

Petite Pies and Other Pleasing Permutations

Worldly Butter Cakes

Kouign Amann: Move Over, Macarons!

Ooey, Gooey Spreads Beyond Saint Louie

The British Are Coming!

Newly Fashioned Nostalgic Flavors

Butterscotch

Lemon & Lime

Pear

Corn

Ice Cream Indulgences