DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 2
Gas Infrastructure 7
Pipelines 7
Storage 8
LNG 8
Electricity Market Overview 8
Industry Landscape 8
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 9
Electricity Infrastructure 14
Generation Capacity 14
Electricity Networks 14
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 16
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 16
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 16
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 16
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 17
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 18
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 19
Croatia's gas market competitive intensity leads that of other markets in the region at similar stages of economic development 19
Following full market opening, the prospects for the 2013 score will be enhanced 20
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 6/10 2013: 8/10] 20
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 4/10 2013: 7/10] 21
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 21
The absence of a traded market combined with the lack of wholesale and retail fragmentation significantly constrain the Supplier Push metrics 21
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 4/10] 21
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 2/10 2013: 4/10] 21
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.1/10] 21
Customer Pull metrics have been given new impetus by the theoretical opening of the market 21
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2/10 2013: 4.5/10] 21
Consumer Representation [2010: 1/10 2013: 3/10] 22
Propensity to Switch [2010: 2/10 2013: 5/10] 22
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 23
Croatia's power metrics remain modest over the forecast period 23
Both Croatia's Supplier Push & Customer Pull metrics show particular weakness 24
Market framework factors show little growth over the forecast period 24
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 3/10 2013: 5/10] 24
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 2/10 2013: 4/10] 25
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 4/10] 25
All the Supplier Push metrics remain at a low level even by the end of the forecast period 25
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 25
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2.5/10] 25
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 0.5/10] 25
A slow pace of market opening has curtailed the Customer Pull metrics 25
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 25
Consumer Representation [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2/10] 26
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 3/10] 26
COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 27
MCI Scores Summary 27
MCI Scoring Scales 30
Definitions 35
Ask the analyst 36
Consulting 36
Disclaimer 36
List of Tables
Table 1: Croatia gas supply and demand balance, 2008-09e 3
Table 2: Croatia cross-border gas transmission pipelines 8
Table 3: Croatian LNG terminals 8
Table 4: Croatia power supply and demand balance, 2008-09e 9
Table 5: Croatia system capacity 15
Table 6: Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 2010 and 2013 27
Table 7: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 28
Table 8: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 29
List of Figures
Figure 1: Croatia indigenous gas production, 1992-2009e 4
Figure 2: Croatia gas import supply sources, 2009e 5
Figure 3: Croatia gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 6
Figure 4: Croatia gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 7
Figure 5: Croatia power production by fuel type, 1995-2009e 10
Figure 6: Croatian power production by fuel type, 2009e 11
Figure 7: Croatia power sectoral consumption, 2009e 12
Figure 8: Croatia power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990-2020f 13
Figure 9: Croatia power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 14
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 16
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 17
Figure 12: MCI Scales 18
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 19
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 20
Figure 15: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 23
Figure 16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 24
Figure 17: Market Competitive Intensity, Croatia 26
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 30
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 31
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 31
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 32
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 33
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 33
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 34
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 34