Containerport demand growth in the Americas has accelerated in recent years. Booming imports from Asia and the above-average economic growth of western US states have put particular pressure on ports on North America’s Pacific seaboard. There are concerns about the capacity of these ports and intermodal systems to handle continued long-term growth in demand. The expansion of Panama Canal capacity and increases in all-water services to the east coast will provide an alternative route. The development of Mexican ports could provide another.

This complex combination of factors is analysed in this new study. It provides forecasts of North American containerport demand to 2020, based on the expected economic expansion of regional hinterlands and anticipated market shares of each port range, including the Mexican Pacific.

Containerport demand in Latin America and the Caribbean has also expanded strongly, particularly in Brazil, where recently privatised port operations have difficulty keeping up with the strength of the country’s exports. Further growth in these markets will be spurred by the continued expansion of relay and hub-and-spoke transshipment centres on both sides of the Central American isthmus.

The study analyses both import/export and transshipment markets, and provides new forecasts of containerport demand in Latin America and the Caribbean.

An "increased-risk" scenario is included to reflect the possibility of protectionist measures or other shock to trade, brought about by concerns about the US trade deficit.

The overall outlook is, nevertheless, for strong long-term demand growth, based on regional economic expansion and increasing transshipment demand.

The major regions covered in Containerport Markets in the Americas to 2020 are:

• North America:
  ▪ Pacific North ▪ Atlantic North ▪ US Gulf Coast ▪ US Pacific South ▪ Atlantic South ▪ Mexican Gulf Coast ▪ Mexican Pacific
• Central America/Caribbean Basin:
  ▪ Caribbean islands ▪ Other Caribbean basin ▪ Central American Pacific
• South America:
  ▪ Atlantic ▪ Pacific

On the supply side, current investment projects and plans are reviewed in detail. The resultant prospective development of port capacity is quantified to 2015. This provides the basis for comparing demand and supply, in order to identify potential surplus capacity or shortfalls. The level of capacity utilisation will indicate the likely direction of container handling prices. Containerport productivity is analysed by country or port range, in terms of TEUs per metre of container quays, and TEUs per quayside container gantry crane.

Section 1 of Containerport Markets in the Americas to 2020 : Introduction And Executive Summary

The summary and conclusions for the study are presented here.

The Section reviews the broad macroeconomic framework within which trade in containerised goods has expanded. After four decades of expansion, can the containerised trades continue their pattern of rapid growth? This Section seeks to address this question by analysing factors which could limit expansion. The changing structure of the containerport industry is also considered, covering such issues as increasing vessel size and port depth, transshipment, the role of international stevedoring companies and carriers in terminal operation, as well as carrier alliances and regional shipping trends.

Section 3 of Containerport Markets in the Americas to 2020 :
Development Of Regional Containerport Demand

Demand trends are analysed by port for the following port regions :

• North America: Containerport demand is being driven by imports of consumer goods and the relocation of domestic manufacturing to lower-cost economies notably China. The pressure on west-coast ports to handle transpacific cargoes for the whole north continent has led to an increase in all-water services to the east coast (via Panama and Suez).

This port region is defined to include the USA, Canada and Mexico.

• Caribbean Basin/Central America: The principal driving force for containerport demand growth in this region has been transshipment, which has expanded considerably more rapidly than import/export container handling demand. Ports in the Caribbean islands, Panama, Venezuela and Colombia provide the main centre for transshipment between east-west and north-south services, and a new transshipment hub is rapidly being established on the Pacific side of the Panama Canal. This port region comprises ports in the Caribbean islands, Costa Rica, Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Belize, Panama, Venezuela and Colombia’s Caribbean seaboard.

• South America: Recent containerport demand growth in this region has focused on expanding Atlantic-seaboard demand, brought about by the rapid expansion of Brazil’s economy and exports. However, Pacific-seaboard demand continues to expand strongly too. Peru is the most recent country to invite private-sector investment in the development of its ports sector.
This port region is defined to include:
- Atlantic seaboard: Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay;
- Pacific seaboard: Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Pacific Colombia.

Section 4 of Containerport Markets in the Americas to 2020 :
Containerport Demand Forecasts to 2020

The historical relationships between growth in GDP and that in non-transshipment container handling demand in the Americas are examined in this Section. A framework is established for the economic cases which are used in forecasting containerport demand. GDP forecasts to 2020 are provided by country and North American hinterland region.

Containerport demand forecasts to 2020 are presented for each country or port range. Analysis of the distribution of North American containerport demand is used to forecast demand according to a matrix of port range and hinterland region.

Container transshipment demand forecasts for the Caribbean Basin/Central America region are derived from the anticipated relation with continental GDP growth, bearing in mind the roles of increasing vessel size, individual carrier decisions, available port capacity and other regional factors in converting direct to transshipped flows.

In addition to high and low economic growth scenarios, a third scenario is presented to reflect the increased risk of a short-term shock to trade interrupting prevailing growth trends.

Section 5 of Containerport Markets in the Americas to 2020 :
Containerport Investment Plans to 2015

The Section presents a comprehensive review of current and planned containerport investment projects. This provides the basis for capacity forecasts to 2015. (Beyond such a timescale, investment plans become too speculative to derive reasonable capacity forecasts by this method.)

By aggregating the planned capacity additions from the foregoing Section, the implied development of container handling capacity at regional ports is detailed here. The anticipated supply/demand balance is quantified in terms of forecast port capacity and throughput to 2015. From this, indications of future port utilisation are derived, and likely areas of excess capacity or shortfall are identified.

This Section analyses the development of containerport facilities by country or port range, in terms of the length of quayage devoted to container handling and the number of quayside container gantry cranes. This development is compared with throughput to calculate average productivity per metre of container quay and per container gantry crane, for each country or port range.