There are significant changes in global dairy market in 2008. Due to rising cost and tight supply global dairy price hit a new high in 2007, which greatly influenced dairy policies in many countries, so supply and demand relationship got dramatically changes among those countries, including enhancing domestic production, reducing exports, stimulating dairy supply. In addition, the economic depression has spread around the world, causing decreasing resident income and consumption as well as demand for dairy products. Raw milk and dairy product prices are continuously dropping, including skim and whole milk powder, whey and cheese.

In 2008 china dairy industry should be separated two stages by Melamine Scandal. Before that it still grows at a fast rate and State Stat. Dept. shows that in the first eight months of this year, the yield of liquid and solid milk products are 10,178kt and 2,495kt, up by 12.07% and 7.34% than the same period of last year respectively; after the scandal in both Sept and October they dropped by 18.7%, 32.5% and 15.58%, 32.39% respectively. Resident demand for dairy products is seriously affected and the production of Yili and Mengniu dropped with 90%. Sanlu group is even closed and sold for auction. The whole dairy chain is making great losses after Melamine Scandal and dairy export is also facing unprecedented crisis.

In order to regulate china dairy market, in the first half year of 2008 the Government issued Requirements on Dairy Processing Permits and Dairy Industry Policies in March and May. After the Melamine Scandal, the Government issued Notification on Enhancing and Supervising Dairy Quility Regulation and Proposals on Dairy Industry Resumption in October and November and Food Safety Act will be implemented soon to revise emerged problems related to the scandal. All these show that the Government is enhancing laws and regulations in dairy industry and dairy consumers are paying more attention on quality. Domestic dairy producers are changing strategy to reply new macro-environment. It is a good chance for international dairy enterprises to invest in China.

This report analyzes dairy production, consumption, market price, basic situation of import and export, market competition, relevant hot topics, policy direction and impact, development of main dairy processing and packaging enterprises in China and the development of the international dairy industry in 2007, there is also a forecast for the development trend of the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. This report gives an integrated analysis on the effects of Melamine Scandal.

This report is a joint product of the experts of the Dairy Department, Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultants Ltd.. These senior dairy analysts also make advice for relevant departments and associations, and keep a beneficial relationship with major dairy enterprises, relevant industry enterprises, which provide precious information and data for this report, assuring the veracity, authority and forward looking. This is a rare report which shall be of great value for dairy investment companies, producers, material suppliers, equipment suppliers and research institutes both at home and abroad to understand the development trend of the dairy industry, to make decisions on the positioning of the enterprise and to formulate development strategies.
 

Chapter 1 General Trend of China’s Dairy Industry in 2008

1.1 Raw Milk Production

1.1.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory Down for First Time since 1998

1.1.2 Raw Milk Output Witnessed Negative Growth for First Time since 1998

1.2 Dairy Processing

1.2.1 Liquid Milk Output Almost Zero Growth

1.2.2 Solid Dairy Output Saw Negative Growth for First Time since 2000

1.3 Dairy Trade

1.3.1 Dairy Import on Conspicuous Upward Slope

1.3.2 Ups-and-Downs of Dairy Export

1.4 Dairy Consumption

1.4.1 Per Capita Milk Possession Volume Witnessed Negative Growth for First Time in One Decade

1.4.2 Urban Per Capita Dairy Consumption on Slide

1.5 Price of Dairy Products

1.6 Dairy Industrial Development

1.7 Dairy Industrial Integration

1.8 Policies for the Dairy Industry

Chapter 2 Analysis of the Policy Environment for China's Dairy Industry in 2008

2.1 Relevant Policies

2.2 Market Entry Conditions for Dairy Industry

2.2.1 Background of the Policy

2.2.2 Main Contents

2.2.3 Impact on Domestic Dairy Industry

2.3 Industrial Policies for the Dairy Industry

2.3.1 Background of the Policy

2.3.2 Main Contents

2.3.3 Influence on the Development of Dairy Industry

2.4 “Regulations for Management of Supervision over Quality and Safety of Dairy Products, i.e. Decree No. 536 of the State Council

2.4.1 Background Information

2.4.2 Main Contents

2.4.3 Impact on Dairy Industry

2.5 Program for Rectification and Revitalization of Dairy Industry

2.5.1 Background

2.5.2 Main Contents

2.5.3 Impact on Dairy Industry

2. 6 Formulation of Other Policies

2. 6.1 Regulating Raw Milk Purchase Price

2.6.2 Management Methods for Interest Rate Discounted Raw Milk Purchase Loans with Subsidies from Central Government

2.6.3 Abolition of Policy on Exemption of Inspection for Famous Brand Products

2.6.4 Maximum Limit of Melamine and Regulations on Testing Methods

2. 6. 5 Relevant Provisions for Application of Essence in Baby’s Formula and Cereal Foods

Chapter 3 Melamine Incident and Its Impact on China’s Dairy Industry

3.1 Recounting the Melamine Incident

3.2 Impact of Melamine Incident on Raw Milk Production

3.2.1 Deep-Rooted Issues Exposed

3.2.1 New Trend

3.3 Impact from Melamine incident on Dairy Enterprises

3.3.1 Negative Impact on Dairy Enterprises

3.3.2 Influence on Foreign-Funded Dairy Enterprises

3.4 Impact from Melamine Incident on Dairy Consumption

3.5 Impact on Dairy Trade from the Melamine Incident

3.5.1 Difficulties for Dairy Export

3.5.2 Dairy Import to See Further Expansion

3.6 Impact from Melamine Incident on Industrial Competition

3.7 Impact on Dairy Policies from Melamine Incident

Chapter 4 Analysis of Dairy Production in 2008

4.1 Production of R

4.1.1 Overall Trend

4.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory

4.1.3 Raw Milk Output

4.1.4 Distribution of Milk Supply Regions

4.1.5 Purchase Price of Raw Milk

4.2 Dairy Production

4.2.1 Liquid Milk

4.2.2 Solid Dairy Products

4.2.3 Powder Output

4.2.4 Output of Other Solid Dairy Products

Chapter 5 Analysis of Dairy Trade in 2008

5.1 Import Analysis

5.1.1 General Situation Analysis

5.1.2 Import Structure

5.2 Milk Powder Import Analysis

5.2.1 Import Volume

5.2.2 Import Structure

5.2.3 Source of Import

5.2.4 Destination of Import

5.2.4 Importation Price

5.3 Whey Import Analysis

5.3.1 Import Volume

5.3.2 Origin of Import

5.3.3 Destination of Import

5.3.4 Importation Price

5.4 Analysis of Import of Milk Fat

5.4.1 Import Volume

5.4.2 Origin of Import

5.4.3 Importation Price

5.5 Cheese Import Analysis

5.5.1 Import Volume

5.5.2 Origin of Import

5.5.3 Importation Price

5.6 Analysis of Import of Fresh Milk & Cream

5.6.1 Import Volume

5.6.2 Import Origin

5.6.3 Importation Price

5.7 Yoghurt Import Analysis

5.7.1 Quantitative Analysis of Import

5.7.2 Origin of Import

5.7.3 Analysis of Import Prices

5.8 Dairy Export Analysis

5.8.1 Overall Situation

5.8.2 Export Structure of Dairy Products

5.8.3 Fresh Milk Export

5.8.4 Export of Powder

Chapter 6 Analysis of Dairy Consumption in 2008

6.1 Overall Dairy Consumption

6.2 Structure of Dairy Consumption of Urban Residents

6.3 Regional Features of Urban Dairy Consumption

6.4 Retail Price of Dairy Products