Abstract

Asia Pacific Market Review and Forecast

This report, by ElectroniCast Consultants, provides the research findings of our study of the Asia Pacific (APAC) consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as “consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting (SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.

General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we provide a market review for the year 2010 plus our forecast and analysis (2011-2015) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.

For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting, Street Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category.

LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based solid-state lighting (SSL) delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.

LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study

Below, are five levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 3”

Level 1 - The chip or die
Level 2 - The Packaged LED
Level 3 - Lamp (Consumer-Level Bulb, Globe, Linear Tube, Panel)
Level 4 - Luminaire (light fixture/lamp holder/fitting)
The following segments quantify the Asia Pacific region:

People' s Republic of China (PRC)
Japan
Republic of Korea
Rest of Asia Pacific
This report provides the 2010 market data review and 2011-2015 forecast by the following functions:

Consumption Value (US$)
Quantity (number/units)
Average Selling Prices ($, each)
The value is determined by multiplying the number of units (lamps) by the average selling price (ASP) in US Dollars. The ASPs are not retail prices; the prices are based on the price of the LED lamp at the initial factory level (prior to FOB - Free On Board). The value is then based on the end-use application in the each country or sub-region in the Asia Pacific region.

This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past nine years, but updated through middle of August 2011.

During the market research process, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED and lighting industry, plus - R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of LED and lighting illumination products.

Forecast Lighting Demand Growth

Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window of opportunity.

Market Forecast Product Categories

This market forecast of the Asia Pacific region consumption is presented for five major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp.

Note: Lower-level products, which are indented in the list shown in Table 1, are summed-up to the higher-level product category stated above it.

Table 1: ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base Hierachy Structure
LED Lamp Product Category List

Parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR)

PAR16
PAR20
PAR30
PAR38
PAR56
PAR64
PAR-Types: Other (Miscellaneous) Sizes
General Service & Decorative: Globe, Other (Candle, Fancy, Other)

Multifaceted reflector (MR) Compatible

MR16
MR11 / Other MR
Linear / Tube

< 1200mm
> 1200mm
Street / Parking-lot / Campus / Similar (Parks, Walkways)

Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition (both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales distribution improvements, and other factors.

Market Opportunity Analysis - Market Dynamics

The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the following points:

Standards (including general regulations & standards, environmental issues, etc.)
Policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting
Industry trends in LED lighting fixtures
Distribution Channel (Electronics stores, other stores, Web-based, other)
LED Lighting industry competitive environment
Report Statistics

 

1. Executive Summary

1.1. Overview
1.2. LED Chips Used in General Solid-State Lighting (SSL)
1.3. LED Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting
1.4. Lighting Standards and Protocols
2. LEDs - Technology Overview

3. LED Lamp General lighting Consumption in the Asia Pacific Region

3.1. Overview
3.2. Parabolic Aluminized Reflector (PAR) LED Lamps
3.3. General Service (A-Type): LED lamps
3.4. Multifaceted reflector (MR) Compatible LED Lamps
3.5. Linear/Tube LED Lamps
3.6. LED Lamps: Street-lighting/Parking-Lots/Campus/Parks/Similar
4. Company Profiles of LED and Related Companies - (Over 270 Companies)

5. Market Research Methodology

6. Definitions

7. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base - Introduction/Explanation of Excel Worksheets

7.1. Overview
7.2. Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets
List of Tables:

1.1.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: LED Lamp Product Category List
1.1.2. LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
2.1. LED Color Variety - Selected Examples
2.1. LED Color Chart
3.1.1. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
3.1.2. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China Forecast, By End-User ($ Million)
3.1.3. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Japan Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
3.1.4. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
3.1.5. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Rest of Asia Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
3.1.6. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: Asia Pacific LED Lamp Product Category List
3.1.7. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million)
3.1.8. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product Category (Quantity/Units)
3.1.9. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product Category (ASP, $ Each)
3.1.10. Calculation of the Cost of Manufacturing Facility Downtime
3.1.11. Comparison of Lighting Technologies
3.2.1. PAR Lamp Designation and Nominal Diameter
3.2.2. PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million)
3.2.3. PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product (Quantity/Units)
3.2.4. PAR LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By Product (ASP, $ Each)
3.2.5. PAR LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China Forecast, Product (all functions)
3.2.6. PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting SSL Japan Forecast, By Product, functions
3.2.7. PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast, By Product (all functions)
3.2.8. PAR LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia Forecast, By Product (all functions)
3.2.9. LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
3.2.10. LED Lamps Used in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China Forecast, End-User ($ Million)
3.2.11. LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Japan Forecast, By End-User ($ Million)
3.2.12. LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast, By End-User ($ Million)
3.2.13. LED Lamps Used in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia Forecast, By End-User ($ Million)
3.3.1. General/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting APAC Forecast, By End-User ($ Million)
3.3.2. General/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Republic of China Forecast, End-User ($ M)
3.3.3. General/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan, By End-User ($ Million)
3.3.4. General/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Republic of Korea, By End-User ($ Million)
3.3.5. General/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Rest of Asia, By End-User ($ Million)
3.4.1. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast (all functions)
3.4.2. MR-Compatible LED Lamps-SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China Forecast (all functions)
3.4.3. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan Forecast (all functions)
3.4.4. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast (all functions)
3.4.5. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia Forecast (all functions)
3.4.6. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting APAC Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
3.4.7. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China, End User ($ Million)
3.4.8. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan, By End User ($ Million)
3.4.9. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea, By End User ($ Million)
3.4.10. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia, By End User ($ Million)
3.5.1. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (all functions)
3.5.2. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China, Product (all functions)
3.5.3. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan, by Product (all functions)
3.5.4. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea, by Product (all functions)
3.5.5. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia, by Product (all functions)
3.5.6. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
3.5.7. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting People' s Republic of China, By End User ($ Million)
3.5.8. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan, By End User ($ Million)
3.5.9. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea, By End User ($ Million)
3.5.10. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia, By End User ($ Million)
3.6.1. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
3.6.2. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting People' s Republic of China, By End User ($ Million)
3.6.3. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Japan, By End User ($ Million)
3.6.4. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Republic of Korea, By End User ($ Million)
3.6.5. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Rest of Asia, By End User ($ Million)
7.1.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Product Category Hierarchy List
7.2.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Application Category Hierarchy List
List of Figures:

1.1.1. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast (Value Basis, $ Million)
1.1.2. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast (Quantity Basis, Million/Units)
1.1.3. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
1.1.4. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast, by Sub-Region (Million/Units)
1.1.5. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast, by Product ($ Million)
1.1.6. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast, by Product (Million/Units)
1.1.7. LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast, by Product (ASP, $, each)
1.1.8. Single-die LED: 1000 lm at 100 lm/W at 3A
1.1.9. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
1.1.10. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
1.1.11. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb Surface Mount Variations
1.1.12. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
1.1.13. High Brightness LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
1.2.1. Diagram of a typical LED chip
1.2.2. Diagram of a typical LED chip
1.2.3. LED Chip Cross-Sectional Structure
1.2.4. ESD Protection Diodes
1.3.1. A19 Bulbs (Consumer-Level Bulb/LED Lamp)
1.3.2. Obstruction Bulbs (Lamps) - Flashing - 138 red or amber LEDs 1-3
1.3.3. LED Lamp - Down-light Retrofit Module
1.3.4. Miscellaneous LED Lamps
1.3.5. LED Light Bulb (Cool White)
1.3.6. Complete Fixture and Replacement Bulb - Streetlight (Lamp)
1.3.7. Samples of Lighting Fixture Types
2.1. LED Chromatic Chart
2.2. Evolution of Research Emphasis During Technology Life Cycle
2.3. LED Chip: Metal Layer (Thin Film Technology)
2.4. Vertical LED Chip
2.5. AC LED Technology on a Wafer
2.6. Ultra High Bright LED Chip
2.7. Ultra-Thin LED
2.8. Solid-State Lighting LED
2.9. LED Module with High Light Quality
2.10. Transparent and flexible inorganic, organic hybrid n-type: Thin Film Transistors (TFTs)
2.11. Lumiramic Phosphor Technology: Thin Film Flip Chip (TFFC) technology
2.12. Wire-to-Board LED Connector
2.13. Next-Generation Light Emitting Diode Module
2.14. 4-Leaded RGB LED
2.15. Vertically Conducting Advanced LED Structure
2.16. AlGaInP LED Efficacy
3.1.1. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
3.1.2. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
3.1.3. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
3.1.4. LED-Based Airfield Runway Edge Lighting (Solar Powered)
3.1.5. LED-Based Solar Powered Airfield Light
3.1.6. LED Technology for Stage Lighting
3.1.7. Entertainment & Architectural Lighting: Multiple Color LED in a Surface-Mount (SMT) Package
3.1.8. Color Mixer Reflector for LED Technology Lighting
3.1.9. LED Technology for Under-Cabinet Lighting
3.1.10. LED-Based Linear Lamps used in Warehousing Application
3.1.11. 48-inch Fluorescent Replacement Style LED Light Fixture
3.1.12. DIP T8 - Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps
3.1.13. SMD T8 and T5 - LED Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps
3.1.14. DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps
3.1.15. DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps
3.1.16. SMD-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps
3.1.17. SMD-Type High-Output LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps
3.2.1. LED-Based PAR 30 Lamp
3.2.2. LED-Based PAR Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
3.2.3. LED-Based PAR Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (Quantity)
3.2.4. LED-Based PAR Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (ASP, $)
3.3.1. General Service LED-based Lamp (A-Style Bulb Category)
3.3.2. Decorative (Candle-Style) LED-based Lamp (C-Style Bulb Category)
3.3.3. LED Round Panel Light
3.3.4. General Service/Decorative LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast ($ Million)
3.3.5. Gen. Service/Dec. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, Sub-Region ($ Million)
3.3.6. Gen. Service/Dec. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, Sub-Region (Quantity)
3.3.7. Gen. Service/Dec. LED Lamps in SSL Gen. Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (ASP, $)
3.4.1. 1W 12V GU5.3 / 2 Pin MR16 LED Replacement Lamp
3.4.2. MR Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product ($ Million)
3.4.3. MR Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (Quantity)
3.4.4. MR Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (ASP, $)
3.4.5. MR Compatible LED Lamps: SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
3.4.6. MR Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (Quantity)
3.4.7. MR Compatible LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (ASP, $)
3.5.1. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product ($ Million)
3.5.2. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (Quantity)
3.5.3. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Product (ASP, $)
3.5.4. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
3.5.5. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (Quantity)
3.5.6. Linear Tube LED Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (ASP, $)
3.6.1. LED Street Lamps Undergoing Test Operations
3.6.2. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast ($ Million)
3.6.3. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast (Quantity)
3.6.4. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Market Forecast (ASP, $ each)
3.6.5. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
3.6.6. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (Quantity)
3.6.7. LED Street Lamps in SSL General Lighting Asia Pacific Forecast, by Sub-Region (ASP, $)
3.6.8. LED Lighting Martin Place (Sydney Australia)
3.6.9. Tunnel Lighting (China)
3.6.10. Solar/Wind LED Street Lighting (China)
3.6.11. Solar/Wind LED Street Lighting (Okinawa)
4.1. PCB Assembly
4.2. LED Backlit Display
4.3. Rugged Touch Screen with NVIS Capability
4.4. LED Down light with 102 Lumens per Watt Fixture
4.5. LED Lighting Military Solutions
4.6. LED Lighting in Railway Station
4.7. LED Technology Safelight Design
4.8. LED Lighting (water flow stream)
4.9. NVIS/LED Control Panel
4.10. Integrated Weapons Delivery System
4.11. Cockpit Modular Display/Panel
4.12. Cockpit Large Area Display
4.13. Traffic Lamp LED
4.14. High Power LED Lamp
4.15. Surface Mount Type LED
4.16. Surface Mount Type LED
4.17. Exterior Aircraft LED Lighting
4.18. LED/CCD Barcode Readers
4.19. Surface-Mount Multi-layer Ceramic Packages
4.20. LED Linear Optical Array
4.21. Solid-State NVIS Lamps
4.22. LED Escalator Light
4.23. Nanostructures Designed for Different Color Emission
4.24. LED Array Lighting - Lamp
4.25. Light-Measurement Device
4.26. SSL LED: Replacement for Halogen Lamp in Spotlights
4.27. LED-Based Digital Billboard (Signage/Display)
4.28. Diagram of Backlight LED Drivers
4.29. Diagram of Multifunction Backlight LED Drivers
4.30. Diagram of White Backlight LED Drivers
4.31. Diagram White Backlight LED Drivers
4.32. Rotary Wing Aircraft Cockpit Display
4.33. Ultra-Thin LED
4.34. Quality Management System in LED Manufacturing
4.35. Military and Harsh-Environment LEDs
4.36. LED-Based Marine Biology Lighting Device
5.1. Market Research & Forecasting Methodology