The embedded ac-dc power supply market is facing an unprecedented number of opportunities that have not been typical for this industry in the past. Driven by new applications such as the Smart Grid and Solid-State Lighting, ac-dc power supplies are undergoing a significant shift in demand characteristics that will result in new product designs and sales opportunities. These include trends toward lower wattages and possible increased captive production.
Smart grid technology is expected to change the design of all types of electronic equipment. Despite current progress, however, the successful deployment of the smart grid will be dependent on numerous technology and standards developments for power electronics. For the smart grid to have benefits, it must be able to reliably monitor loads and communicate to the downstream loads, and also be able to turn these loads on/off or up/down as appropriate.
Although the power electronics used in the smart grid are still being defined, Darnell Group has identified several segments that are showing the greatest potential for power supply manufacturers: smart meters for monitoring residential electricity, water and gas; electric vehicle chargers; and “smart appliances” that rely on demand response to adjust energy usage. A promising direction is the ability to remotely monitor and “dispatch” energy as needed in a building, such as lighting control systems.
Just as the smart grid is opening up new opportunities for ac-dc power supplies, it is also introducing threats that power supply makers need to be aware of. For example, a number of these applications, such as smart meters, are primarily captive production. As a result, merchant production could see some decrease in market share. Also, conductively coupled EV chargers are facing a potential threat from wireless inductive charging methods. Such emerging markets create a landscape where multiple solutions exist; and not all of them include ac-dc power supplies.
Darnell has also identified certain applications that, although not new, are undergoing important changes. Building Automation Systems (BASs) are a traditional industrial application that is slowly evolving as energy efficiency regulations and the smart grid take hold. Wired systems are moving toward wireless implementations and protocols, for example, with wireless sensor networks changing how building facilities are designed and retrofitted. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and lighting control have traditionally been separate systems, but next-generation BASs are looking at merging the two into more efficient (and less costly) designs. This will affect both the design and sales of embedded ac-dc power supplies.
Another growth area are light-emitting diodes (LEDs), which are expected to be at the forefront of solid-state lighting solutions. LEDs are already on the market in a number of applications and already accepted as a reliable technology. In fact, according to a recent study, by the year 2020, it is anticipated that LED lighting will saturate nearly half of the United States’ commercial, industrial and outdoor lamps market.
Power supplies used in LED-based lighting solutions are inherently different from the power supplies used in standard electronic systems. Conventional electronics typically require tight regulation of the output voltage to ensure proper operation. Power supplies for LED systems, however, are required to provide regulation of the output current. The emergence of ac-dc power supplies for LEDs will require power supply makers to focus on designs that are industrial-grade, rugged and can be used outdoors. Furthermore, they must be able to regulate output current, and they need to be sealed against the elements and thermally protected.
The recently built Dallas Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, claims to use 22,000 power supplies to light its high-definition video displays. At New York’s Yankee Stadium, 8,590 power supplies are used to power the 8.6 million LEDs used to render images on the screens. There are nearly 500,000 large and small billboards within eyesight of the highways, freeways and local streets in the US. Due primarily to cost, only about 1 out of 750 of them are (currently) LED types. This means the market potential for digital signage has barely been exploited, and a potentially huge market for embedded ac-dc power supplies exists.
LED signage is just one market opportunity, however. The applications associated with the smart grid and LEDs are typically lower power than the traditional middle- to higher-wattage applications that are targeted by embedded ac-dc power suppliers. This could signal a shift toward lower-wattage sales, although it is still not expected to alter the demand at higher power levels.
“Traditional” applications will continue to drive embedded ac-dc power supply sales, as well, particularly in data centers – where many of the power architecture changes are taking place. The increased use of the intermediate bus architecture (IBA), along with increased voltage rails, has led to a greater demand for single-output ac-dc power supplies. Front ends provide a single voltage (often 12V) to (for example) an intermediate bus converter that then feeds multiple point-of-load converters. Computers and communications applications utilize various distributed power architectures that also employ an ac-dc front end. The market for these power supplies is, therefore, growing as the impracticality of multiple-output power supplies becomes more apparent.
In fact, single-output power supply systems are expected to dominate in the foreseeable future. Although multiple output power supplies are still used in a number of systems, and the 80 PLUS performance specification includes requirements for multi-output power supplies, applications are using an increasing number of voltage rails, reducing the use of multiple-output power supplies in many devices.
Digital power management and control continue to make significant strides in ac-dc power supplies, in areas such as power factor correction and energy management systems. Since power conversion is an essential element of smart grid implementations, digital power will also be important to enabling the monitoring, communication and control of devices. Measuring energy consumption (and making it meaningful) is a critical part of the smart grid model, since you can’t manage what you can’t measure.
Energy management systems are necessary for smart grids and building automation, but that does not mean customers will pay a premium for them. Ac-dc power supply companies will need to develop new products for these new technologies, but it is possible that existing methods simply need to be re-examined and re-designed. Standards have always played a role in ac-dc power supply design. The Advanced Telecommunications Computing Architecture (ATCA), the Climate Savers Computing Initiative, the 80 Plus Program and CompactPCI Serial will be influential factors in the expansion of the embedded ac-dc power supply market. For example, fourth-generation ATCA platforms, with 40Gbit/s Ethernet switching, high-performance multi-core processors and enhanced cooling will enter production in 2011.
Both silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) are expected to be important in future power supply designs. SiC-based power devices are said to exhibit superior properties such as very-low switching losses, fast switching behavior, improved reliability and high temperature operation capabilities. An advantage of these properties is that they help increase switching frequency, decrease the size of passive components and switches, and reduce the need for cooling, thus making the devices a good candidate for ac-dc power supplies. Gallium nitride technology also has the potential to support the next generation of semiconductor solutions, as current power converters rely on silicon, which has reached its limit on improving conversion efficiencies.
Finally, the further development of direct-current (DC) powered installations and buildings presents one of the more visible long-term threats to the embedded ac-dc power supply industry. Until recently, the use of dc power was limited to facilities in the telecom industry; now the use of dc power is expanding and is expected to be used in additional areas such as commercial, industrial and residential applications. The addition of dc power delivery systems to homes, office building and commercial facilities offers the potential for significant improvements in energy delivery efficiency, reliability, power quality and cost of operation.
These trends make it clear that embedded ac-dc power supplies are on the cusp of some potentially game-changing scenarios. Power supply makers have reason to be optimistic, since even the potential threats can point the way to alternative opportunities. This makes the long-term outlook for ac-dc power supplies very bright.
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