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World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2016-2025

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Rush to install offshore wind as 2020 Euro target looms

200bn of Capital Expenditure will result in installed capacity >70GW by 2025

Now in its seventh edition, the new Douglas-Westwood (DW) World Offshore Wind Market Forecast provides a ten-year view of the sector through to 2025. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 74GW, driven by a large number of developments taking place in the UK, Germany and China and strengthened by the growth of new entrants to the offshore wind sector, such as France and the USA.

Following a strong year of offshore wind activity in 2015 (3.8GW installed), capacity installed will dip in 2016 to 1.5GW. However, capacity will return to an upward trend, peaking at 9.2GW in 2022. Capital Expenditure (Capex) on projects which have surpassed the conceptual stage of development will total 200 billion (bn) between 2016 and 2025, with potential upside of 70bn (expected Capex).

Capital costs have reduced in recent years, predominantly due to the larger sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure (such as foundations) being required per MWh generated. This upsizing presents new challenges for installation contractors but should result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become operational.

The UK will add circa 10GW of capacity over the next decade, with most of this activity expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place. Germany will also install over 10GW but has a longer term outlook, with activity levels peaking in 2021. China is expected to install over 10GW of capacity, lower than previously expected but still representing a strong growth market.

Emerging markets include countries such as the USA and France, who are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The USA is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW.

Key Themes

The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2025 and is essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector. The report focuses on:


Key drivers - a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need to replace power generation capacity.
Commercial insights - including analysis of cost pressures on capital, lifetime costs, risk factors and typical financing models.
Technology review - analysis of research and development (R&D) priority areas.
Supply chain - a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges.
Ten-year market forecast - for new capacity, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, wind turbines, foundations, cabling, substations and vessels.
Country analysis - detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast, including by capacity and segment analysis.
NEW FOR 2016:

Component forecasts - translate expected Capex-into expected capacity and associated components, assuming a proportion of concept / speculative projects go ahead towards the end of the forecast period.
Helicopter forecast - assessment of demand for construction and operations and maintenance (O&M) support, as a result of increased helicopter use as wind farms are installed far from shore.
Key themes - discussion around new trends in the industry including: new technologies, clustering, repowering and logistical solutions including helicopters and service operation vessels (SOVs).
Why Purchase the World Offshore Wind Market Forecast?

DWs market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the worlds top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for companies working within the offshore wind sector, wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

Industry consultation - discussion with a wide-range of companies including: project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors. Throughout the report we highlight pertinent quotes, related to specific aspects of the market.
Unique and proprietary data - detailed by project in global offshore wind database. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
Detailed methodology - our forecast provides a medium-case scenario for market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.
Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year forecast of offshore wind expenditure.
Concise report layout - consistent with DWs commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with speed-read summaries of key points throughout.
1. Summary and Conclusions

Summary
Conclusions
2. Drivers and Indicators

Overview
Political Drivers
Economic Drivers
Low Carbon Power Generation
3. Offshore Wind Project Development

Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle
Offshore Wind Project Cost Structure
Capex Phase 1: Planning & Development
Capex Phase 1: Wind Turbine
Capex Phase 1: Balance of Plant
Capex Phase 1: Installation
Opex Phase
Capex Phase 2: Decommissioning
Offshore Wind Supply Chain
4. Commercial Insights

Project Scale
Supply Chain
Capital and Lifetime Costs
Risk Profile
Financing Challenges
Contracting Strategies
Industry Challenges
Technology: Wind Turbines
Technology: Foundations
Key Trends: New Technologies
Key Trends: Clustering and Repowering
Key Trends: Logistics
Key Markets: Current Capacity
Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity 2016-2025

5. Market Forecast

Methodology
Added Capacity by Country
Cumulative Capacity by Country
Capital Expenditure by Country
Annual Capital Expenditure by Type
Operational Expenditure by Country
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Country
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Size
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Manufacturer
Segment Forecasts: Foundations
Segment Forecasts: Cables
Segment Forecasts: Offshore Substations
Segment Forecasts: Vessels
Segment Forecasts: Helicopters

6. Appendix

Data and Text Conventions

List Of Tables

Table 1: Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets
Table 2: Foundation Types Comparison
Table 3: Investor Types and Their Attitude to Risk
Table 4: Contracting Strategies
Table 5: Cost of Repowered Wind vs. CCGT 2005-2020
Table 6: Offshore Wind Projects Status Methodology
Table 7: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
Table 8: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
Table 9: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
Table 10: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
Table 11: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Table 12: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025
Table 13: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025
Table 14: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
Table 15: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Table 16: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025
Table 17: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Table 18: Substations Installed by T ype, 2016-2025
Table 19: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025
Table 20: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025
Table 21: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025

List Of Figures

Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 2: Drivers for Offshore Wind
Figure 3: EU 2020 Targets for Key Offshore Wind Markets - Progress to Date
Figure 4: Global Primary Energy Demand Growth
Figure 5: Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type
Figure 6: Global Power Generation Forecast
Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy - Key Technologies in Europe
Figure 8: Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle
Figure 9: Cost Breakdown by Project Phase - Capex, Opex, Decommissioning
Figure 10: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Overview
Figure 11: Average Project Capacity, Distance from Shore and Water Depth
Figure 12: Offshore Wind Capex Drivers
Figure 13: Offshore Wind Average Project Capex, 2000-2025
Figure 14: Planning & Development Timelines, UK.
Figure 15: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines
Figure 16: Aerogenerator X
Figure 17: Two-bladed Offshore Wind Turbine.
Figure 18: Types of Floating Foundations.
Figure 19: Picture of UAV
Figure 20: Radar Image Showing Aircraft Flying Through Wind Farm
Figure 21: Siemens OTM Module
Figure 22: Artists Impression of Siemens Facility
Figure 24: Wind Service Operation Vessel (SOV)
Figure 23: Heli-Hoist Basket
Figure 25: Key Markets, the Global Picture
Figure 26: Global Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, 2016
Figure 27: Key Region, North-Western Europe
Figure 28: Forecast Global Capacity Installation 2016-2025: Emerging Markets
Figure 29: Global: Forecast Wind Farm, Capacity and Turbines
Figure 30: All Offshore Wind Projects vs. DW Forecast Capacity, 2016-2025
Figure 31: Global Forecast Capacity
Figure 32: Global Offshore Wind Forecast Capacity Installed, 2016-2025
Figure 33: North-Western Europe Forecast Capacity
Figure 34: Added Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 35: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 36: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 37: Expected Annual Offshore Wind Capex, by Type 2016-2025
Figure 38: Planning and Development Capex, 2016-2025, m
Figure 39: Wind Turbine Annual Capex 2016-2025, m
Figure 40: Balance of Plant Annual Capex 2016-2025, m
Figure 41: Installation Annual Capex 2016-2025, m
Figure 42: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 43: Operational Expenditure by Activity
Figure 44: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 45: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, 2016-2025
Figure 46: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, 2016-2025
Figure 47: Foundations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
Figure 48: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 49: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2016-2025
Figure 50: Substations Installed by Country, 2016-2025
Figure 51: Substations Installed by Type, 2016-2025
Figure 52: Installation Vessels Required by Type, 2016-2025
Figure 53: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, 2016-2025
Figure 54: Helicopters Required, 2016-2025

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Reports Details

Published Date : Nov 2015
Country :Global
Category :Energy and Power
Publisher :Douglas Westwood Ltd
Report Delivery By :Email
Report Delivery Time :12 to 24 hours after placing the order.

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